Minsheng Securities said that the probability of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year has increased. Unemployment remains low, coupled with the decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates two to three times next year, and may suspend interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. In a small probability scenario, too much tariff and immigration policy may cause US stocks to fall and the US economy to decline significantly, so there ...
TD Securities said the latest market reaction following Trump's victory suggested that the market expected a combination of tax cuts and tariffs to push up the Federal Reserve's neutral interest rate. We are changing our forecasts for the Fed because rising inflation will lead to a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. We now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in November, December and January, then pause in March. The Fed will continue to cut rates - pause - cut rates in 2025, and ...
TD Securities said it now expects the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024 and 25 basis points each in September, November and December.